(Arab Affairs ) Sudan receives new year, a referendum and Bashir weighs risks of secession of the south
Source: Arab Affairs
Date: 12/18/2010
Any concession will lead to another
Risk of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the loss of influence and prestige, as well as for oil if it chose the south secede in a referendum due at the end of the first week of the new year, the considerations may be tempted to defer al-Bashir and his allies this benefit the historical or disabled.
Aalmhahd political »Khartoum
All estimates indicate that the people of southern Sudan, the product of oil, will choose independence in a referendum promised by the peace agreement signed in 2005 which ended decades of war with the north, and scheduled to take place on the ninth of January (January).
He spent the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's ruling National Congress Party-led, 2010, to send mixed signals regarding how to behave.
Followed by the NCP-track. The international community and the media is wrapped to an understanding, they assert that the referendum will be on schedule and will accept the results. The truth lies in the second track: They need more time to address the weaknesses of political, economic and weaknesses within the NCP.
I have made it a civic group classified the south and an interface to the NCP, it is a legal challenge to stop the registration for the referendum, claiming the presence of irregularities. And accused persons in the Congress Party leaders of the South trying to rig the referendum on secession, and threatened not to recognize its outcome.
On the other hand, the South to the North of trying to charge him to launch an offensive in response to the bombing within its territory, while the North accused the South «declaration of war» harboring Darfur rebels.
Leaders are still searching the north and the south-sharing issues of oil revenue and external debt of Sudan ($ 35 billion), and the demarcation of the border and the issue of citizenship.
There are also concerns of fraud and that the North refuses to result pretext lack of credibility of the referendum.
Requires the adoption of any resolution rate of 50 percent plus one vote, while admitting the results of the referendum requires the participation rate of not less than 60 percent.
It would be a simple majority of fraud is very difficult, because all indicators show that the majority of voters will choose to secede from the north.
However, it would be easier rigging participation rate (60 percent). One of the tactics can be difficult to make the voting process to voters because of the lack of security or transportation or other problems.
Two States parties Alouhdin
Sudan is currently classified as a state Democratic parties are going down, in front of authoritarian regimes that dominate the power in their respective regions. And the opposition at the level of the country as a whole does not control but less than five percent of the seats in the National Assembly.
If all goes Vaca what is expected, will turn this country into two parties, each party state one. And beyond the mere absence of the principle risk multi-party system. There are also repercussions on the security of the country and the region.
The Sudan suffers long rebellions and civil conflict waged mostly marginalized groups living on the outskirts of the country, most recently in Darfur in the west, which poses a challenge to the dominance of the central authority. And extended many of these conflicts to destabilize neighboring countries and hinder the companies operating in the oil sector.
It may be the oil of the sticking points after the secession of the south from the north. The majority of Sudan's proven reserves of oil are concentrated in the south but will move north through the pipeline to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Did not reach the leaders of North and South after the agreement regarding the sharing of oil revenues.
The two parties should implement significant reforms if they wanted to avoid a repetition of past conflicts.
And stability is not easy for the State is moving towards secession. Similar historical events are not encouraging.
Risk
The international community hopes does not get out of this whole scope of the policy of intensifying pressure for further concessions, regarding the sharing of oil revenues, the lifeblood of the economy of both North and South.
But the risks may be severe. Virjae forced the referendum would anger the South has a new spark of conflict also leads to disruption of production of oil from Sudan.
The only factor that would make on these issues in the minds of the elite al-Bashir and the NCP is to become the secession of the south a threat to their own political survival.
The secession of the south could be a blow to the influence of al-Bashir and his position, and then influence the status of the NCP. And people will remember him as the leader who allowed the loss of half of the country.
If al-Bashir granted separation of former rebels in the south, Cetkr beads, could face the challenges of rapidly intensified rebels in western Darfur, as well as rebels in the east, and at the border between North and South. So that the north will be weaker after the separation.
And opposition parties in the north, divided and weak, was crushed in the elections of April (April) the past. But weak parties and rebel groups have gained strength rapidly in the past supported a secret from Sudan's neighbors.
Additional time
The North also needs additional time to diversify its economy away from oil, and build up their reserves of foreign currency and curb inflation. And before many of the changes in the Sudanese public unrest due to increased food prices.
There is a package of incentives from outside Africa, reducing the severity of the risk to the system from within Sudan.
Washington has offered to delete the Sudan on its list of state sponsors of terrorism and to help ease the sanctions, for resolving the conflict in Darfur and the peaceful holding of a referendum.
But there are doubts in Khartoum to be the president Barack Obama has the capacity or the will to implement these promises after the disengagement, especially in light of the International Tribunal's request to arrest Al-Bashir on suspicion of war crimes.
And increased international isolation after Bashir arrest warrants handed down by the International Criminal Court against him in relation to charges of committing atrocities in Darfur, and reduced his visits to the outside.
In defiance of the president, a senior Islamic Books Zine El Abidine good in the article, says that al-Bashir to step down to save Sudan from the isolation that is expected to worsen after the separation.
He added that he would not return there is something the West wants in Sudan after a separation even treated him gently.
Why a referendum?
The war between Sudan's north-south civil war, the longest in Africa and broke for the first time in 1955. And ended the peace agreement signed in 2005, the last phase of the conflict, and promised to southerners to self-determination through a referendum on independence from the north.
Since then, differences arose between the ruling National Congress Party and the Popular Movement for the Liberation of South Sudan's former rebel group, regarding the application of almost every detail of the details of an agreement in 2005, resulting in a wall of distrust. Few believe now that the majority of southerners will vote in favor of the unit.
1-1-2011 10:34:13
Young people in Sudan, representing a glimmer of hope to end the circle of deadly civil war and tribal
Sudan youths between two fires .. Different separation agreement on peace
Khartoum -
Accelerate the pace towards the separation of Sudan harsh but the youths represent a glimmer of hope to end the circle of deadly civil war and tribal, which has suffered for decades, Africa's largest country in terms of area.
Sudan did not live in a democracy, only a few years since independence from Britain in 1956 and civil society has suffered the brunt of successive authoritarian governments.
And provided a peace agreement between north and south in 2005 a limited area of democracy and provided for the holding of a referendum in 2011 on the independence of the south, which the majority believes that the split will not comply with the tireless efforts of the North to block a vote in order to keep the oil resources of the South.
But despite the continuation of the Governments of North and South in beating the drums of war rhetoric aggressive united efforts of young people in Sudan, the first move of its kind across the border to send a message that they will not become foot soldiers in any new conflict.
Edison said Joseph, a native of the south and live in Khartoum, "young men are the first to be summoned during the war and will be the first to pay the price ... Our message is simple: we will not fight."
Met in Khartoum more than 22 youth organizations from all parts of Sudan from the north and south, east and Darfur in the west and agreed on a common platform to work for peace and coexistence, regardless of the outcome of the referendum scheduled for the ninth of January. The organizations affirmed their commitment to also return to their respective regions to spread the message.
And views of members of organizations vary on what they want from the referendum. There is a group "Youth for separation" There are also other groups calling for unity. But young people in these groups are setting a good example to be followed by the rival commanders most of them are not in the ruling parties in the north and south, they ignore their differences and work together to achieve one goal is to avoid war.
Dad said Darwish, a cultural center for young people in northern Sudan that there is support for secession and there is support for the unit, but everyone agreed on the desire to be free and fair referendum, peaceful and added, "We will respect the choice the people of South Sudan, whatever."
The youth activists also wanted to eradicate the problem and described it as one of the major problems in the Sudan and racism.
The Sudan is located between the Arab countries in North Africa and sub-Saharan countries with a black majority. Considered a civil war between north and south Sudan largely a microcosm of this split in the African continent.
It is also one of the largest tribal problems in Sudan and caused a split in the country for centuries dating back to the era of the slave trade. You may hear the word "slave" so far in the community of Khartoum to refer most often to the African tribes in the south and Darfur, which has encouraged many citizens in the south to secede.
Dad said Darwish The meeting of youth organizations is a start. And added: "Just sitting around this table is a start."
The young men and women who represent different groups from all over the Sudan, they do not fully trust in their leaders when they say that the country will drift back to war so they decided to move themselves in the context of reviving the role of civil society, which dates back to the 2005 peace deal.
Said Wafa Ahmed of the Kordofan region of western Sudan said the government and political parties are all the same generation, a generation older young men they have no role and added that they are marginalized, and this forum give them a voice.
The Forum received aid and funds from the Sudanese in the Diaspora, and other groups in civil society.
Said Farouk Mohammed Ibrahim, a veteran civil active that the older generation in the Sudan is the one who failed to retain the unity of the country while the younger generation understand the majority of the population who are the future.
But the younger generation is having problems already. Authorities did not grant licenses to organize forums and communities have also been pursuing the authorities of civil society for a long time because they see it as a threat to its rule.
He was arrested at least four of the young activists in Darfur, prompting the others in the west of the country to carry out their activities in secret.
It may be warned the Sudanese government justified because of the strong history of civil society in the country after being held Nkabta lawyers, doctors and others in civil society endorsed a popular uprising that toppled former President Jaafar Nimeiri in 1985 after a 16-year rule.
But the young activists in the Sudan are determined to spread their message among the people of their generation in the country.
Joseph said, "We expect that things are more difficult after the referendum .. will this government to the same strict policies pursued in the past but we must continue to work."
No comments:
Post a Comment